Wednesday, April 6, 2011

Government Shutdown Friday

I've been studying this issue for a month or so now and I swear the only comments that Dems. are making about the issue is that they think the reps are being unreasonable, and the only thing the reps are saying is that we need to cut between $61-100bill from the budget. Tea Party of course support the cuts. As do libertarians. So it's really just coming down to an issue of whether or not the Dems. will stop complaining about losing budget cuts and will actually MAKE THE CUTS.--I don't see any way around this issue with the way politics are at this time...cuts will be made and next election the supporters of such cuts will be reelected while the biggest opponents to cuts will be evicted.

Republicans have a pretty strong claim right now that we are $6trillion in debt and can't continue, it's causing economic effects and making plenty of people worried about the U.S.'s future as a world power, and just as history has proven in the past: economic problems take the forefront of American votes. If you have a valid solution for the economic problems and your opponent doesn't, you'll win every election.
This battle over the budget is just a long postponed fight over how we will fix the economic crisis that started several years ago (about 10 years). The problem has been swept under the rug for a long time as people refused to tackle it, it's just a shame that we're being forced to handle it now during the low point in our economy.

Personally, I think the government really is going to shut down for a day or two. If I were in the position of conservative senators right now I'd refuse to accept any deal with a number less than $61bill for this year and a promise of even more for next year's budget.

It really does come down to the democratic senators whether or not they'll accept the budget cuts or accept a surefire ticket out of office next term. But if I were in the democrats situation I'd keep blaming the republicans all the way to hell because the moment they side with them they lose SOME of their voters. It's a catch-22: they either side with republicans on the deal that cuts out $100billion and they lose the support of a lot of liberals; or they refuse to make any cuts, let the government shut down and then they lose the support of all moderates and many liberals. The pressure is so high that they probably aren't thinking straight, because you would never want to lose the ability to work with moderates.

The president, who has said very little about the issue until recently, is of course sideing with democrats and blaming republicans. It's a political move so he can later say "hey, I was just doing what my party elected me to do, I didn't REALLY agree with the government shut down" and he could also pass the buck a second time with, "it's the republican's fault for not being willing to bend". So far, what I'm seeing of his presidency he's merely used rhetoric to get what he wants and does very little as far as execution goes. His ETHOS is lacking on the side of action, but it is also boosted by the rhetorical victories he has had throughout his career. (rhetoric isn't everything though!)


I'm going to make a prediction on the outcome of these budget talks:

Next election the democrats are going to be completely ousted from the senate, the president will be a moderate republican. A shutdown will occur, and the american people will wine and complain for a while like a baby calf weened from its mother, but in ten years we will have cut 4trillion from our national debt, and we'll be back on top of our game. At that point democrats will slowly build up power again and push in new programs that they want the government to pay for.
Taxes will probably rise slightly, but not for two or three years.
It will be a long time before racist america votes another black president into office, the last tainted by the economic problem.
Tea Party will grow slightly and then disappear before the 10 years is up.
And we'll have opened a lot of new markets in other parts of the world, particularly the middle east and china.

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